What to pack?

What should I pack for this trip?  I have taken two week trips using only carry-on luggage, but I will be gone for 133 days. When I was in college everything I owned could fit into a suitcase and a backpack.  But since then, I have collected stuff and now have 30+ years of things that I use daily, weekly, monthly, occasionally, and rarely.
It is easy to include all the daily and most of the weekly items while excluding the rarely and most of the occasionally used items.  I must limit my selection of stuff to 50lbs for the checked luggage.  I need clothes,  shoes,  toiletries, but how many clothes, shoes, etc.  Do I take a dress jacket, pants, adn dress shoes?  What about hiking boots, running gear, running shoes?  It will be cold in Lyon, similar to Boulder, for the rest of the winter, but I will also be there in the spring.  Should I take shorts and light shirts?
A bigger question is probably the inclusion of items for handling the constant injuries I seem to acquire while playing sports.  I plan on finding soccer matches and maybe be able to take up badminton again as it seems to be popular in France.   I will need ice packs, ace bandages, and ointments. I can buy them all there, but I already have them here and could take them with me.

So I have been packing all day.  First try I got about 3/4 of the stuff into my suitcase and it was 10 lbs over weight.  I then cut out half of the clothes and decided that I would not wear the suit. Saves space and another pair of shoes.  I moved more stuff into a carry on and now I am at 49lbs. I will either buy what I need in Lyon, or wait to get a package from home.